Implications of Brexit

[amigean]

Actually you are wrong. The figures you show are for GDP growth, not GDP *level*. All industrialised countries experienced slower growth after the 1970s, so it's by no means unique to the UK (and much less due to the EU, as one could have inferred).

UK GDP has increased by more than 2.5 times since 1970 (see for yourself: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+1970+and+2016) and average income per person has doubled (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+per+capita+1970+and+2016). What is interesting in contrasting these last two figures is that a lot more wealth has been created than has been distributed to the average person. The obvious conclusion is that the gains from growth have been unequally distributed - it has been skimmed by the 10% and the 1% top earners. The same people who own tabloids that rage against immigrants and the EU.

If a crash happens in a similar fashion to 2008 and we have remained in the EU it will be worse for us as we will be required to put large amounts of money in to bail out the worst failing countries again. Spain, Ireland and Greece especially. If we leave we are not legally obliged to do anything.

I think a lot of people don't take into account when the UK entered the EU we were on our bum financially and did get help from Europe

I've heard that too but actually UK GDP peaked prior to EEC/EU membership and has been in decline ever since. Britain was on it's a**e at the start of the 70's mainly due to the oil crisis (not our fault) and the 'three day week' (our fault due to a weak government and militant unions). Our bail out in 1976 came from the IMF not from Europe.

View attachment 107634

- - - Updated - - -

This thread has has turned into political debate, pretty much from the beginning, even though the original question was the practical implications to us AmiBayers in regards of our hobby. Nevertheless, as long as the debate stays civilized, I won't mind.

Thank you. Nothing I enjoy more than a good mass debate!

 

[DXZeff]

@WHiZZi; If you don't like it here, you're welcome to stay in your own country. Seems logical; I dislike the way things are run in, say, Portugal, so I won't go to Portugal because it would be a major downer and a waste of my time.

Hey, British people are rude, loud and selfish. I know, I am one and I have to live among the rest of them.



Generally, nobody in the UK sees themselves as Eurpoean, certainly not in England anyway. Personally I think it's a stupid argument the same way I think languages are stupid, the planet is tiny and yet it is segregated into many different nations, cultures and tongues? That's just pointless and it hinders so much, you can't even point the finger at one single party for the problems in the world either and it isn't always obvious where to start.

 

[CrazyC]

The is no sustainable economic argument in favour of BREXIT. 9 out of 10 academic economists in the UK

I pretty much agree with you. The issue is that the UK government is predicting such completely apocalyptic scenarios that they are discrediting their own arguments, and thus people are dismissing them.
Whilst I don't see any huge economic benefits to leaving, I also don't believe it will result in such terrible scenarios. Therefore the decision actually hangs on other factors.
The UK government's own predictions expect a further 5bn increase in population in the next decade. To people here trying to kids into schools, or appointments at the doctor's surgery, or get onto the housing ladder (yes I know its more of a UK thing that last one), its very hard to see how on earth the infrastructure can cope. (Again its all relative of course - many of these are "first world problems", but to the man/woman on the street they are very real concerns.

- - - Updated - - -

And as far as economists (and big business, and bankers, and the treasury) all predicting that Brexit would be disasterous, most of the same also suggested that failing to join the euro would be the same, and they also have very vested interests. Generally in most quarters (certainly in the general population) there is an acceptance that we dodged a bullet on the Euro.....
(all of this is only in my honest opinion, and whilst not an economist by trade, that was my degree).

 

[Arnie]

Hey, British people are rude, loud and selfish. I know, I am one and I have to live among the rest of them.

You speak for yourself. I'm 58 and I was brought up to be polite, respectful and helpful.
You young whipper-snappers......

 

[DXZeff]

I try to be respectful to a degree and was brought up to be, but soon found that in today's culture this gets you nowhere fast.

----------
The housing situation is bollocks with or without the EU. Sure, buying a place is hard as hell but you can't even rent these days. My friend cannot get even a little flat because nobody will rent him one or they cost too much (Hull has some of the cheapest rent in the UK!) and he's on a decent wage.

You can't even fall back on Council housing because they're slowly getting rid of it and replacing it with private houses. My entire estate is being flattened to make way for mostly private housing, a lot of which is paid for by Siemens. One of the largest estates in Hull gone, requiring rehousing of thousands of people, during a housing shortage. Some opted to wait for the new builds, took them and now cannot pay the rent because it is too high. It's a recipe for disaster just waiting to happen and most of the remaining housing is hardly better than a slum. I've already being halfway re-housed once and ended up back here surrounded by demolition crews because the place I got landed with was practically falling down, was significantly smaller than the house I am currently in and, despite being some piece of crap 1960s build, cost far too much to rent at ~£87 a week... They even lied about that and told me it was less when I signed the paperwork. Crap neighborhood too, constant thievery to a point I didn't think possible, they stole my light bulbs for heavens sake, who the hell does that?


The rest of it is being bought up by people. Why they ever allowed the purchase of social housing I will never understand, it was an absurd idea and has been significant in contributing to where we are today.

 

[cugar124]

Lol true very very true

Sent from my LG-H815 using Tapatalk

 

[Arnie]

The rest of it is being bought up by people. Why they ever allowed the purchase of social housing I will never understand, it was an absurd idea and has been significant in contributing to where we are today.

I totally agree, stupid Idea. I feel your pain, It took me 6mths to get my Nephew a flat here in Leicester. The council didn't want to know so I found him a private flat, but that cost around £80 a week.

 

[LukasSid]

I pay £375 per week rent mate. I paid over 15k income tax last year. I am European definitely not Asian or African
People think they vote Brexit immigration stops and everybody get council flat and benefits for doing nothing...

 

[moggsie]

I wasn't wrong. GDP is measured as a growth percentage although I get your point (good links BTW). I agree that we have gotten richer as a nation (as has most of the west). It's just a shame most of that 'wealth' is actually debt. Which is also one of the reason why, as you state, the distribution of wealth has become very uneven.
If you really want to see major inequality when it comes to wealth - wages relative to house prices from about 1979 to 2016. I'll see if I can find it.

Actually you are wrong. The figures you show are for GDP growth, not GDP *level*. All industrialised countries experienced slower growth after the 1970s, so it's by no means unique to the UK (and much less due to the EU, as one could have inferred).

UK GDP has increased by more than 2.5 times since 1970 (see for yourself: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+1970+and+2016) and average income per person has doubled (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+per+capita+1970+and+2016). What is interesting in contrasting these last two figures is that a lot more wealth has been created than has been distributed to the average person. The obvious conclusion is that the gains from growth have been unequally distributed - it has been skimmed by the 10% and the 1% top earners. The same people who own tabloids that rage against immigrants and the EU.

I think a lot of people don't take into account when the UK entered the EU we were on our bum financially and did get help from Europe

I've heard that too but actually UK GDP peaked prior to EEC/EU membership and has been in decline ever since. Britain was on it's a**e at the start of the 70's mainly due to the oil crisis (not our fault) and the 'three day week' (our fault due to a weak government and militant unions). Our bail out in 1976 came from the IMF not from Europe.

View attachment 107634

- - - Updated - - -

This thread has has turned into political debate, pretty much from the beginning, even though the original question was the practical implications to us AmiBayers in regards of our hobby. Nevertheless, as long as the debate stays civilized, I won't mind.

Thank you. Nothing I enjoy more than a good mass debate!

 

[DXZeff]

I'd be interested to see what you can dig up on that subject.


Edit: This was written before the above reply and was aimed at LukasSid;

Oh? Really? You don't say.

The housing situation is bollocks with or without the EU.

If people don't start properly reading what I've written instead of just skimming over it and making assumptions I shall exclude myself from this board. Probably a little extreme but I've just come away from trouble on another board and I can't be bothered with it any more to be honest.

 

[amigean]

Ok I don't want to carry this on but to set the record straight: GDP isnt measured as a growth percentage, it is measured in monetary units, that is money,e.g. billions of pounds. It is an aggregate of the value of all goods produced and services delivered within a country. Economic growth (percentile change of GDP) is expressed as a percentage which is what you confused it with. My point was that the confusion left the mistaken impression that that the UK had been somehow worse off economically over the time that coincided with its EU membership. It hasn't.

Another thing that needs to be put straight is about the ability of economists to estimate the costs and benefits of important decisions such these. It has been falsely suggested, and not only here, that economists were strongly in favour of the UK joining the euro. In fact most economists at the time correctly argued against the common currency in view of its flawed architecture. The UK government followed this sound advice and set its famous 5 economic tests to decide if euro membership was in the national interest. The tests weren't met so the UK didn't join. It was triumph of reason over emotion which served Britain well when Germany abused its systemic power in the EU to force the ECB to pursue a monetary policy that benefited them alone.

The reason why the possibility of Brexit depresses me so much is that the EU doesn't stand a chance without the pragmatism of the British. It saddens me that what I held to be the paragon of an advanced western democracy, where reasonable argument reigned supreme, has been so disastrously led astray. I fear for what comes next.

I wasn't wrong. GDP is measured as a growth percentage although I get your point (good links BTW). I agree that we have gotten richer as a nation (as has most of the west). It's just a shame most of that 'wealth' is actually debt. Which is also one of the reason why, as you state, the distribution of wealth has become very uneven.
If you really want to see major inequality when it comes to wealth - wages relative to house prices from about 1979 to 2016. I'll see if I can find it.

Actually you are wrong. The figures you show are for GDP growth, not GDP *level*. All industrialised countries experienced slower growth after the 1970s, so it's by no means unique to the UK (and much less due to the EU, as one could have inferred).

UK GDP has increased by more than 2.5 times since 1970 (see for yourself: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+1970+and+2016) and average income per person has doubled (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+per+capita+1970+and+2016). What is interesting in contrasting these last two figures is that a lot more wealth has been created than has been distributed to the average person. The obvious conclusion is that the gains from growth have been unequally distributed - it has been skimmed by the 10% and the 1% top earners. The same people who own tabloids that rage against immigrants and the EU.

I've heard that too but actually UK GDP peaked prior to EEC/EU membership and has been in decline ever since. Britain was on it's a**e at the start of the 70's mainly due to the oil crisis (not our fault) and the 'three day week' (our fault due to a weak government and militant unions). Our bail out in 1976 came from the IMF not from Europe.

View attachment 107634

- - - Updated - - -



Thank you. Nothing I enjoy more than a good mass debate!

 

[ptyerman]

If people don't start properly reading what I've written instead of just skimming over it and making assumptions I shall exclude myself from this board. Probably a little extreme but I've just come away from trouble on another board and I can't be bothered with it any more to be honest.

I feel for you and think the same. I too have avoided another Amiga board for the same reason, it's getting very tiring and annoying.

 

[Amon_RA]

If people don't start properly reading what I've written instead of just skimming over it and making assumptions I shall exclude myself from this board. Probably a little extreme but I've just come away from trouble on another board and I can't be bothered with it any more to be honest.

I feel for you and think the same. I too have avoided another Amiga board for the same reason, it's getting very tiring and annoying.

Seriously? Just because 1 person is not reading what you write you will leave AmiBay? Wow...

Online discussions are not personal, no need to feel offended or get upset by the things people write. Just ignore it and move on. Welcome to the internet

 

[ptyerman]

Some of us just have had enough of the same old sh*t, usually from the same players too. If something becomes more stressful than useful/enjoyable then what's the point?
Anyway, enough said and off topic.

 

[moggsie]

I do apologise. You are quite right - I was getting my definitions a**e backwards. I meant Economic Growth, not GDP. You were right that, in GDP terms, the UK has increased in wealth since 1970. I do maintain that GDP wealth creation is mostly based on debt, especially in this country. You're quite right about the Euro. Total disaster that's just waiting to implode.

Here's a link to the house prices to wages ratio (first time buyers) I mentioned before as someone was interested.

View attachment 1459136
Sorry that it doesn't go back as far as I'd hoped and it's source is Nationwide, not the Land Registry which is a far more accurate figure. It starts around the late 80's boom which then lead to the early 90's slump which brought the HP ratio below long term average (which is about 3.5 x main income). Then it boomed again starting around 2000-2002 before the big bust of 2008. They've since rebounded whenever a Government intervention is implemented (2009 - Zero Interest Rate and Quantitative Easing, 2012 - Funding for Lending Scheme, 2013 Help to Buy.

Ok I don't want to carry this on but to set the record straight: GDP isnt measured as a growth percentage, it is measured in monetary units, that is money,e.g. billions of pounds. It is an aggregate of the value of all goods produced and services delivered within a country. Economic growth (percentile change of GDP) is expressed as a percentage which is what you confused it with. My point was that the confusion left the mistaken impression that that the UK had been somehow worse off economically over the time that coincided with its EU membership. It hasn't.

Another thing that needs to be put straight is about the ability of economists to estimate the costs and benefits of important decisions such these. It has been falsely suggested, and not only here, that economists were strongly in favour of the UK joining the euro. In fact most economists at the time correctly argued against the common currency in view of its flawed architecture. The UK government followed this sound advice and set its famous 5 economic tests to decide if euro membership was in the national interest. The tests weren't met so the UK didn't join. It was triumph of reason over emotion which served Britain well when Germany abused its systemic power in the EU to force the ECB to pursue a monetary policy that benefited them alone.

The reason why the possibility of Brexit depresses me so much is that the EU doesn't stand a chance without the pragmatism of the British. It saddens me that what I held to be the paragon of an advanced western democracy, where reasonable argument reigned supreme, has been so disastrously led astray. I fear for what comes next.

I wasn't wrong. GDP is measured as a growth percentage although I get your point (good links BTW). I agree that we have gotten richer as a nation (as has most of the west). It's just a shame most of that 'wealth' is actually debt. Which is also one of the reason why, as you state, the distribution of wealth has become very uneven.
If you really want to see major inequality when it comes to wealth - wages relative to house prices from about 1979 to 2016. I'll see if I can find it.

Actually you are wrong. The figures you show are for GDP growth, not GDP *level*. All industrialised countries experienced slower growth after the 1970s, so it's by no means unique to the UK (and much less due to the EU, as one could have inferred).

UK GDP has increased by more than 2.5 times since 1970 (see for yourself: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+1970+and+2016) and average income per person has doubled (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=UK+real+GDP+per+capita+1970+and+2016). What is interesting in contrasting these last two figures is that a lot more wealth has been created than has been distributed to the average person. The obvious conclusion is that the gains from growth have been unequally distributed - it has been skimmed by the 10% and the 1% top earners. The same people who own tabloids that rage against immigrants and the EU.

 

[iainjh]

Gordon brown seemed very reasoned today if you get a chance to replay his speech. Also the £ is down and european holidays are more expensive already source: Moneysaving expert newsletter, £ to Euro down €1.26 and to USD, $1.41.

 

[salaxi54]

First off, my sympathy to the family of Ms. Cox. I won't go into much talking, but is it just me thinking that this was not just a political assassination?
As sad as this event is, i'm sure it will be well manipulated by the media. I'm not a conspiracy fanatic, but this just looks like one...

 

[SaviorX]

First off, my sympathy to the family of Ms. Cox. I won't go into much talking, but is it just me thinking that this was not just a political assassination?
As sad as this event is, i'm sure it will be well manipulated by the media. I'm not a conspiracy fanatic, but this just looks like one...

I hate to say it, but I am amazed we haven't seen this more often...

what with SO many people angry at the way things have gotten, and the whole political process...and feeling as though so many politicians have just been bought off...

I sometimes think the only reason we haven't is sheer apathy....

 

[ptyerman]

Nothing has been said yet about motives, it could be related but it also could just be a random nutter! It's a case of wait and see at the moment.

 

[Amon_RA]

Nothing has been said yet about motives, it could be related but it also could just be a random nutter! It's a case of wait and see at the moment.

He shouted "Britain first"... how can that not be related?